It was one of the most-used statements of 2020, and now again in 2026, we find ourselves in “unprecedented times”, with skyrocketing consumer prices, complex international turmoil and a ubiquitous digital presence that’s evolving faster than we can keep up with.
So with new challenges ahead of us due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, it’s time to turn the spotlight on our own industries.
The price to pay
Unless you were living under a rock, you would have felt the ripples of the fuel crisis tidal wave that hit Australian shores earlier this year. Supply chain disruptions directly caused by political turmoil in the Middle East led to Australian fuel costs surging to record highs.
Consumers spent 5.1% more on transport, and less overall on certain discretionary items, presumably to account for the forced redirection of funds. 1
But the big picture doesn’t look that bad. A spending report from Commonwealth Bank found that although there were tentative signs of softness in some discretionary spending, household spending overall has been relatively resilient when compared to 2025. 2
Reliving the past?
The situations are starkly different, but political turmoil has, of course, shaken Australia’s economic bedrock in the past.
During World War I, real aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 9.5% between 1914 and 1920 while inflation and unemployment rates rose. Post-war, Australia’s economy was hugely vulnerable, and we became one of the first countries to fall into a “severe and long-lasting” depression. 3
The economy fared better in World War II despite more than a third of Australia’s GDP being defence expenditure. For context, Australia’s typical defence spending has usually been measured at roughly 2% of GDP. 4 On top of this, supply shortages were on the rise due to lost or diverted shipping capacity. Inevitably, prices rose, and consumer spending plummeted. 5
But recovery was much swifter than decades before, and when advertisers were able to gain traction again in the late 1940s, most Australians were homeowners. This meant a major advertising target was “life-changing” innovative home appliances, such as automatic washing machines, that were marketed as ways to transform household chores and free up time. 6
Not too dissimilar to the AI-automation-focussed marketing of our generation.
Covid, our most recent “unprecedented times” epidemic, saw household consumption spending decline by 12% in the first quarter of 2020. But unlike the previous two economic disruptions, this happened during the digital age.
This technological difference, in accordance with significant fiscal policy measures, meant that although spending habits pivoted to favour online buying, household consumption actually started to recover stronger and earlier than expected. 7
Today, the digital age has only gotten stronger, and we’re no longer struggling to simply get in front of the consumer, given that we can be in their pocket 24/7.
Instead, we’re trying to get the consumer’s attention. We’re trying to garner a moment of pause in a deafening void of infinite scrolling. That is only made more difficult by economic downfalls.
Adapting strategies
The most recent Federal Budget said Australia is “not immune” to the impacts of the Middle East. It said the economic consequences will continue to be felt for some time.
Globally, advertising revenue is projected to surpass $1.67 trillion by 2030. But experts warn that this figure is heavily dependent on the course of international conflict. Industry leaders say losses are already in play, and it’s predicted that in the next two years, the crisis in Iran will remove at least $94 billion from that final figure. 8
Fortunately, Australia is on a different wavelength. Our advertising market is said to be one of the most stable and mature markets globally.
And although some key costs are climbing, experts say the bigger risk to the consumer market might be psychological, not economic.
Ian Whittaker wrote in Campaign:
“History suggests that when companies cut brand investment prematurely, the long-term cost often outweighs the short-term savings.
In other words, the biggest advertising risk from geopolitical shocks is rarely the conflict itself. It is how marketers react to the conflicts.” 9
But financial stress is still very real in the day-to-day Australian, meaning messaging has never been more important.
Everything is more expensive. This means true value is the new baseline for consumers. It’s no longer a price point but a part of a “deeper, data-driven relationship” with a consumer who’s spoiled for choice.
AI is also swarming the marketing world, with new and innovative ways to turn automation into an advantage for driving economic growth even harder during the global conflict.9
In short, consumers want real value, and they want it now. Fortunately, Australia has the unique market stability to provide what they need.
Final word
With so much digital noise and growing competition, tapping into the consumer can be difficult - and this is before you add in a global trade war, supply shortfalls and rising costs.
But the Australian consumer is resilient, and our current market is relatively stable on a global and historical scale.
As long as we can keep a level head and provide a strong sense of value outside of just cost, then we might be able to weather the storm, and maybe even catch a rainbow at the end.
References
1 ABS. 5 May 2026, ‘Transport costs fuel sharp rise in household spending’.
2 Clarke, A. 21 April 2026. ‘Economic Insights: Tracking the impact of the Middle East conflict on Australia’. Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
3 Borngiorno, F. 15 May 2018. ‘Post-war Economies (Australia)’. International Encyclopedia of the First World War.
4 Burgess, A., Yussuf, A. 17 April 2026. ‘In charts: A look at Australia’s record spending on defence’. ABC News.
5 Reserve Bank of Australia. N.d. ‘The Spectre of Inflation’. Make Your Money Fight.
6 National Library of Australia, n.d. ‘Selling modernity’.
7 Bishop, R., Boulter, J., Rosewall, T. 17 March 2022. ‘Tracking Consumption during the COVID-19 Pandemic’. Reserve Bank of Australia.
8 Szalai, G. 14 April 2026. ‘Iran War Could Impact Nearly $50 Billion in Ad Market This Year’. Hollywood Reporter.
9 Whittaker, Ian. 17 March 2026. ‘The Iran war will not hit APAC advertising the way many assume’. Campaign.
10 Deloitte, 2 April 2026. ‘2026 Global Retail Industry Outlook’.
Rachael Rosel